Tuesday, July 25, 2017

Marty's Orioles

Since Marty has also seen a lot of the Reds' opponents in his 44 years of broadcasting, I thought I'd do all-star teams for other franchises, too, as the Reds encounter them.

The Orioles are the one Reds' opponent I didn't make an all-star team for when they came to town in April, and since the Reds only have a couple opponents left that they haven't already seen in 2017 (they're playing the Yankees today and tomorrow), I decided I'd go ahead and knock the O's out now.

Same rules apply: highest career WAR while playing for the franchise from 1974 to 2017; roster mix of 5 starting pitchers, 5 relievers, and 7 bench players (6 on an AL team with the DH); minimum 200 games at a position for position players, 50 games started for starting pitchers, and 100 relief appearances for relievers.

In the stats listed below, WAR is the player's career total with the franchise, but other counting stats are at a per-season rate (162 games for position players, 34 starts for starting pitchers, and 68 relief appearances for relievers).


Line Up

PosPlayerWARBAHRRBISBOBPSLG
LFBrady Anderson34.9.257196928.364.430
DHKen Singleton29.9.28420861.388.445
SSCal Ripken95.6.27623912.340.447
1BEddie Murray56.2.294291055.370.498
3BManny Machado26.6.27828848.330.471
CFAdam Jones29.4.27828909.319.463
CChris Hoiles23.5.26227811.366.467
RFNick Markakis25.6.29017787.358.435
2BBrian Roberts28.8.278116434.349.412

Bench

PosPlayerWARBAHRRBISBOBPSLG
IFMelvin Mora28.8.280208511.355.438
IFRafael Palmeiro24.3.284361146.366.520
IFMark Belanger23.1.22323015.294.280
CRick Dempsey21.4.23810462.319.355
IFBobby Grich20.7.263166916.379.416
OFAl Bumbry20.3.27964428.341.370

Pitchers

PosPlayerWARWLSVERAIPSOWHIP
SPMike Mussina47.5171003.532371811.18
SPJim Palmer39.3161003.002481231.19
SPScott McGregor20.2141113.99219921.29
SPMike Boddicker17.4151303.732341541.29
SPJeremy Guthrie16.5101404.122131301.27
RPMike Flanagan21.8121003.892031131.32
RPDarren O'Day10.35232.3865720.99
RPJim Johnson10.435233.1075501.23
RPZach Britton10.465273.22104861.26
RPGregg Olson11.744342.2674741.25

Saturday, July 22, 2017

All-time Marlins

Since Marty has also seen a lot of the Reds' opponents in his 44 years of broadcasting, I thought I'd do all-star teams for other franchises, too, as the Reds encounter them. (And since the Miami Marlins have only existed as a franchise since 1993, Marty's Marlins are the all-time Marlins.)

Same rules apply: highest career WAR while playing for the franchise from 1974 to 2017; roster mix of 5 starting pitchers, 5 relievers, and 7 bench players (6 on an AL team with the DH); minimum 200 games at a position for position players, 50 games started for starters, and 100 relief appearances for relievers.

In the stats listed below, WAR is the player's career total with the franchise, but other counting stats are at a per-season rate (162 games for position players, 34 starts for starting pitchers, and 68 relief appearances for relievers).


Line Up

PosPlayerWARBAHRRBISBOBPSLG
2BLuis Castillo22.5.29333940.370.356
SSHanley Ramirez26.8.300258340.374.499
3BMiguel Cabrera18.2.313311184.388.542
RFGiancarlo Stanton30.3.267421066.357.544
LFCliff Floyd16.8.2942810423.374.523
1BJeff Conine13.6.29019882.358.455
CFMarcell Ozuna11.8.27323853.324.448
CCharles Johnson11.7.24121760.324.418

Bench

PosPlayerWARBAHRRBISBOBPSLG
IFDan Uggla15.6.26332974.349.488
IFMike Lowell14.1.27224953.339.462
OFGary Sheffield12.9.2883511021.426.543
IFDerrek Lee9.8.264258010.353.469
OFCody Ross9.5.26523846.322.465
CJ.T. Realmuto7.3.285136411.327.424
IFEdgar Renteria5.0.28854737.342.357

Pitchers

PosPlayerWARWLSVERAIPSOWHIP
SPJosh Johnson25.313803.152091901.23
SPDontrelle Willis17.1141103.782151591.36
SPKevin Brown15.0171002.302461901.06
SPAnibal Sanchez13.7111203.752041731.35
SPJose Fernandez13.117802.582112641.05
RPRenyel Pinto3.42313.6264621.46
RPBraden Looper3.54393.6972451.39
RPAJ Ramos6.333192.8168801.23
RPSteve Cishek4.845232.8669751.22
RPRobb Nen5.054273.4179831.28

Wednesday, July 19, 2017

All-time Diamondbacks

Since Marty has also seen a lot of the Reds' opponents in his 44 years of broadcasting, I thought I'd do all-star teams for other franchises, too, as the Reds encounter them. (And since the Arizona Diamondbacks have only existed as a franchise since 1998, Marty's Diamondbacks are the all-time Diamondbacks.)

Same rules apply: highest career WAR while playing for the franchise from 1974 to 2017; roster mix of 5 starting pitchers, 5 relievers, and 7 bench players (6 on an AL team with the DH); minimum 200 games at a position for position players, 50 games started for starters, and 100 relief appearances for relievers.

In the stats listed below, WAR is the player's career total with the franchise, but other counting stats are at a per-season rate (162 games for position players, 34 starts for starting pitchers, and 68 relief appearances for relievers).


Line Up

PosPlayerWARBAHRRBISBOBPSLG
3BCraig Counsell12.6.26664717.348.357
2BOrlando Hudson10.5.29413699.365.448
1BPaul Goldschmidt33.3.3013010821.401.531
LFLuis Gonzalez29.9.298301054.391.529
CFSteve Finley18.0.278299113.351.500
RFJustin Upton14.3.278248018.357.475
SSStephen Drew13.1.26615707.328.436
CMiguel Montero12.4.26417800.342.421

Bench

PosPlayerWARBAHRRBISBOBPSLG
OFA.J. Pollock16.3.291155730.345.459
OFChris Young14.7.239247521.318.437
OFGerardo Parra11.7.27485110.326.395
IFJay Bell9.8.26324804.355.458
IFMatt Williams8.3.278271043.327.471
CDamian Miller6.0.26917671.336.437
IFChad Tracy5.9.28018733.339.453

Pitchers

PosPlayerWARWLSVERAIPSOWHIP
SPRandy Johnson52.917902.832383041.07
SPBrandon Webb33.4151103.272261821.24
SPCurt Schilling26.018903.142472771.04
SPDan Haren13.2141003.562292231.13
SPMiguel Batista11.610903.991871171.36
RPJosh Collmenter7.79803.541631141.18
RPGreg Swindell4.12413.7669541.18
RPBrad Ziegler7.242122.4965431.15
RPByung-Hyun Kim8.466193.43871021.21
RPJose Valverde5.524263.2970891.17

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Here Comes da Judge

I mentioned in my post yesterday how until Mark McGwire, no player in history had a career $HR component of .100 or better, which means no player had homered on 10% or more of his batted balls for his entire career. Babe Ruth, at 9.9%, looked like he had reached the limit of what was humanly possible. That is, until the last two generations of ballplayers came along.

I made a list of all the players in history with 300 or more PA and an ISO of .200 or better, which is 298 players, and I ranked them by $HR rate. The top 25 are shown below:

RkPlayerPAHRBBSOHBP$HR
1Joey Gallo44428591884.145
2Aaron Judge46134701515.145
3Ryan Schimpf527346917512.125
4Mark McGwire76605831317159675.125
5Matt Davidson34621231312.111
6Gary Sanchez47333471167.109
7Miguel Sano1175641514172.106
8Russell Branyan3398194403111830.105
9Giancarlo Stanton3797234441106533.104
10Jim Thome103136121747254869.103
11Chris Carter285315832795126.102
12Adam Dunn83284621317237986.102
13Chris Davis4427255441140446.101
14Babe Ruth106237142062133043.099
15Ryan Howard6531382709184359.097
16Trevor Story69938632306.095
17Khris Davis212012617256126.093
18Sammy Sosa9896609929230659.092
19Rob Deer4513230575140932.092
20Kyle Schwarber55529751577.092
21Kevin Roberson3452027937.092
22Barry Bonds1260676225581539106.091
23Bo Jackson262614120084114.090
24Dave Kingman7429442608181653.089
25Jose Canseco8129462906194284.089

The reason I set the PA threshold so low was to include all the young players just starting their careers, like 2017 Home Run Derby champion Aaron Judge. Counting these short-timers, there are now thirteen players who have hit homeruns on 10% or more of their batted balls, the oldest of whom is Mark McGwire (born 1963). Four of them were contestants in the Derby last night.

The reason I think McGwire took the baseball world by storm in the '90s was that he gave us something no one had ever seen before. There had been a lot of exciting power hitters since Babe Ruth, but none of them had ever equaled or surpassed his 9.9% $HR rate. McGwire, at 12.5%, obliterated that mark (like he obliterated the single-season homerun record). On average, one in every eight pitches he connected with over the course of his career cleared the fences.

Out of the Gen-Xers (known as baseball's Steroid Generation) with 10%+ $HR rates (McGwire, Branyan, Thome, and Dunn), only McGwire was an admitted (or even suspected) PED user. And baseball has adopted strict drug testing since Big Mac retired.

So why are there now NINE Millennials with $HR rates north of 10%? The reason for the surge in homeruns over the last couple seasons may provide the answer. Many people suspect that the balls are now juiced (to make up for the fact that the players no longer are). The table above lends credence to this theory. Of the top seven batters in career $HR rate, six of them began their careers in 2013 or later. The other one is Mark McGwire.

But beyond that, hitters these days are more willing than ever to strike out an exorbitant amount of times in order to hit the ball HARD when they do connect. In a way, they are following Babe Ruth's approach to its logical conclusion.

McGwire still has by far the best $HR rate for players with long (3000 PA) careers, but three very young players have surpassed him, for now. Joey Gallo and Aaron Judge each have $HR rates of .145, meaning better than one in seven of their batted balls leave the yard. Ryan Schimpf, meanwhile, is homering once every eight batted balls, the same rate as McGwire.

But while Gallo and Schimpf (career batting averages of .186 and .195, respectively) haven't made consistent enough contact (or hit safely on enough of the balls they do put in play) to truly be offensive powerhouses, Aaron Judge (career .296 BA) and, to a slightly lesser extent, his teammate Gary Sanchez (.285) have stayed true to the all-or-nothing approach without seeing their batting averages suffer. Whether they can keep it up remains to be seen, but as of now, Judge is beginning to fill the role in the baseball public's mind of the larger-than-life home run hero, more so than any other player has since Mark McGwire.

Being 6-7, 280 doesn't hurt, either.

Monday, July 10, 2017

Home Run Derby

The 2017 Home Run Derby is about to get underway as I type this, and just for fun I thought I'd look at the 2017 leaders in homeruns per batted ball, measured by the $HR component, the formula for which is

HR / (PA - BB - SO - HBP).

I would argue that this metric, rather than raw homeruns or homeruns per total plate appearances, is the best measure of a player's true homerun power, because it takes walks and strikeouts out of the equation and only counts instances where the batter made contact.

Here are the top 10 batters for the 2017 season so far (min. 275 PA):

RkPlayerTmPAHRBBSOHBP$HR
1Aaron JudgeNYY36630611094.156
2Joey GalloTEX29121391124.154
3Cody BellingerLAD2922533850.144
4Eric ThamesMIL3292351894.124
5Khris DavisOAK36824431172.117
6Miguel SanoMIN34521441200.116
7Logan MorrisonTBR3462450782.111
8Mike NapoliTEX2831824924.110
9Giancarlo StantonMIA3692639884.109
10Yonder AlonsoOAK2982039691.106

Going by $HR, it looks like Joey Gallo and Khris Davis should have joined Aaron Judge and Miguel Sano in this year's Derby. On the NL side, Eric Thames would have been a more logical choice than Charlie Blackmon.

Here are the active career leaders (min. 3000 PA):

RkPlayerPAHRBBSOHBP$HR
1Giancarlo Stanton3797234441106533.104
2Chris Davis4427255441140446.101
3Ryan Howard6531382709184359.097
4Mark Reynolds5607270638173252.085
5Mike Napoli5128256625139766.084
6Nelson Cruz5526301463123840.080
7Pedro Alvarez316015329690611.079
8Mike Trout376418451382652.078
9Jose Bautista6540322934120271.074
10Mark Trumbo380419226293413.074

Only two players in the top 10, Giancarlo Stanton and Mark Reynolds, currently play for an NL squad. The next two players in career $HR currently playing in the NL are Jay Bruce (.071) and Bryce Harper (.069).

And here are the all-time career leaders (min. 3000 PA and 200 HR):

RkPlayerPAHRBBSOHBP$HR
1Mark McGwire76605831317159675.125
2Giancarlo Stanton3797234441106533.104
3Jim Thome103136121747254869.103
4Adam Dunn83284621317237986.102
5Chris Davis4427255441140446.101
6Babe Ruth106237142062133043.099
7Ryan Howard6531382709184359.097
8Sammy Sosa9896609929230659.092
9Rob Deer4513230575140932.092
10Barry Bonds1260676225581539106.091

And finally, here are the career leaders for each generation (min. 3000 PA):

Generation Player            $HR
National   Harry Stovey      .021
American   Bill Joyce        .024
Deadball   Ken Williams      .041
Ruthian    Babe Ruth         .099
G.I.       Ralph Kiner       .083
Silent     Harmon Killebrew  .088
Boom       Rob Deer          .092
Gen X      Mark McGwire      .125
Millennial Giancarlo Stanton .104

A homerun rate of 10% of batted balls used to be impossible; Babe Ruth finished his career with what looked to be the maximum human limit of 9.9%. But now six players in the last two generations have topped the 10% threshold for their careers (including Russell Branyan, who missed my career leaders table because he hit less than 200 homeruns, but who homered at an astounding .105 $HR rate, second only to McGwire).

Thursday, June 29, 2017

Marty's Brew Crew

Since Marty has also seen a lot of the Reds' opponents in his 44 years of broadcasting, I thought I'd do all-star teams for other franchises, too, as the Reds encounter them.

Same rules apply: highest career WAR while playing for the franchise from 1974 to 2017; roster mix of 5 starting pitchers, 5 relievers, and 7 bench players (6 on an AL team with the DH); minimum 200 games at a position for position players, 50 games started for starters, and 100 relief appearances for relievers.

In the stats listed below, WAR is the player's career total with the franchise, but other counting stats are at a per-season rate (162 games for position players, 34 starts for starting pitchers, and 68 relief appearances for relievers).


Line Up

PosPlayerWARBAHRRBISBOBPSLG
2BPaul Molitor59.8.303146936.367.444
SSRobin Yount77.0.285148015.342.430
LFRyan Braun44.4.3033411222.366.543
1BCecil Cooper30.5.302221038.339.470
3BJeff Cirillo26.2.30712696.383.449
RFGeoff Jenkins21.9.27728924.347.496
CJonathan Lucroy18.1.28416786.342.436
CFCarlos Gomez20.0.267206735.325.452

Bench

PosPlayerWARBAHRRBISBOBPSLG
IFDon Money25.0.26819727.337.424
IFJim Gantner22.2.27445112.319.351
OFBen Oglivie21.2.27725976.345.461
OFGorman Thomas19.2.23232925.328.469
IFPrince Fielder16.8.282371063.390.540
CB.J. Surhoff15.3.27487715.323.380
IFJose Valentin11.3.240197317.323.421

Pitchers

PosPlayerWARWLSVERAIPSOWHIP
SPTeddy Higuera30.7151003.612241761.24
SPBen Sheets25.6131303.722201861.20
SPChris Bosio18.6121113.762161361.24
SPBill Wegman17.7121304.16211991.29
SPMike Caldwell17.2151203.74239811.28
RPBob McClure6.97753.97135801.42
RPChuck Crim7.77683.47107511.32
RPMike Fetters7.334192.9979581.37
RPDan Plesac12.157243.2194801.23
RPRollie Fingers7.957372.54100751.08

Saturday, June 24, 2017

Marty's Expos/Nats

Since Marty has also seen a lot of the Reds' opponents in his 44 years of broadcasting, I thought I'd do all-star teams for other franchises, too, as the Reds encounter them.

Same rules apply: highest career WAR while playing for the franchise from 1974 to 2017; roster mix of 5 starting pitchers, 5 relievers, and 7 bench players (6 on an AL team with the DH); minimum 200 games at a position for position players, 50 games started for starters, and 100 relief appearances for relievers.

In the stats listed below, WAR is the player's career total with the franchise, but other counting stats are at a per-season rate (162 games for position players, 34 starts for starting pitchers, and 68 relief appearances for relievers).


Line Up

PosPlayerWARBAHRRBISBOBPSLG
LFTim Raines48.8.301116271.391.437
2BJose Vidro16.3.30116753.363.459
CFAndre Dawson48.1.280259428.326.476
RFVladimir Guerrero34.4.3233811320.390.588
1BRyan Zimmerman36.2.28126975.345.475
CGary Carter55.6.26924894.342.454
3BTim Wallach36.7.25919835.317.418
SSIan Desmond15.6.264197521.312.424

Bench

PosPlayerWARBAHRRBISBOBPSLG
OFBryce Harper24.1.282318713.385.510
OFMarquis Grissom19.8.279136462.331.405
OFRondell White19.2.293228419.348.480
OFWarren Cromartie15.3.2809588.335.402
IFMike Lansing10.6.276126323.333.405
CWilson Ramos9.8.26823900.313.430
IFChris Speier9.4.2455461.323.332

Pitchers

PosPlayerWARWLSVERAIPSOWHIP
SPSteve Rogers40.3131303.262431401.24
SPDennis Martinez30.1141003.062321401.15
SPPedro Martinez20.1161003.062312441.09
SPJordan Zimmermann20.1131003.322091721.16
SPStephen Strasburg19.815903.182032381.09
RPJeff Fassero16.011923.201601411.24
RPAndy McGaffigan8.77452.92117881.26
RPTyler Clippard10.26462.6876871.05
RPTim Burke12.174162.6196631.18
RPMel Rojas9.054193.1190731.19