Thursday, September 1, 2016

Component Top 5's and Bottom 5's for Pitchers

Continuing from my last post (and you should read it first, if you haven't yet, for an introduction to this one), here are the top 5 and bottom 5 pitchers in each binary component, for the years 2006 to 2015:

Rk  Player              $BB

1   Greg Maddux          4%

2   Kevin Slowey         5%
3   Cliff Lee            5%
4   Bartolo Colon        5%
5   Paul Byrd            5%

197 Oliver Perez 13%
199 Daniel Cabrera 14%
200 Carlos Marmol 18%

Maddux just barely qualified - he ranks 200th in batters faced for the years 2006-2015.


Rk  Player              $SO

3   Chris Sale          31%
5   Clayton Kershaw 30%

196 Chien-Ming Wang 12%
197 Nick Blackburn 12%
198 Carlos Silva 11%
199 Paul Byrd           11%
200 Aaron Cook          11%


Rk  Player              $HR

1   Brandon Webb         2%
2   Chien-Ming Wang      2%
3   Nathan Eovaldi       2%
4   Adam Wainwright      2%
5   Tyson Ross           2%

196 Miguel Gonzalez      5%
197 Ted Lilly            5%
198 Rodrigo Lopez        5%
199 Bruce Chen           5%
200 Marco Estrada        5%

And this illustrates Bill James' point in Baseball Analyst. The range of $HR rates for hitters is 0 to 10%. For pitchers it is much tighter, between 2 and 5%.


Rk  Player              $H

1   Chris Young         24%
2   Marco Estrada 26%
3   Ted Lilly           26%
4   Matt Cain           27%
5   Jered Weaver 27%

196 Kevin Slowey 32%
197 Kyle Davies         32%
198 Zach Duke           32%
199 Matt Belisle 32%
200 Manny Parra         33%

Marco Estrada - the most susceptible pitcher to the long-ball, but the 2nd-most effective at inducing outs on balls in play.


Rk  Player             $XBH

1   Jamey Wright 19%
2   Tyson Ross          19%
3   Brett Anderson 19%
4   Chad Qualls         20%
5   Josh Johnson 20%

196 Chris Young         30%
197 Dave Bush           30%
198 Jonathan Sanchez 30%
199 Ian Kennedy         30%
200 Ben Sheets          32%

Now we're into the back four components. Whatever skills these components reveal that can't be attributed to the pitcher's defense or home ballpark, I can't account for them in my Fanduel spreadsheet (unless I were to build my own projections, which I won't).


Rk  Player              $3B

1   Ricky Romero         2%
2   Mark Hendrickson     3%
3   Mike Mussina         3%
4   Chris Sale           4%
5   Tim Wakefield        5%

197 Josh Fogg           16%
198 Josh Tomlin         16%
199 Jair Jurrjens 16%
200 Josh Johnson 17%

I would assume that $3B is almost entirely attributable to team defense and ballpark.


Rk  Player              $SA

1   Nathan Eovaldi       3%
2   Braden Looper        3%
3   Doug Fister          3%
4   Bartolo Colon        4%
5   Chris Capuano        4%

196 Carl Pavano         17%
197 Freddy Garcia 18%
198 Tim Wakefield 20%
199 Chris Young         23%
200 Tommy Hanson 23%

I would also think that $SA and $SB (the ability to hold on baserunners) is much more reflective of pitcher skill....


Rk  Player              $SB

1   Johnny Cueto 40%
2   Mark Buehrle 42%
3   Jon Garland         50%
4   Clayton Kershaw 51%
5   Zack Greinke 53%

196 Alex Cobb           87%
197 Francisco Rodriguez 87%
198 Jonathan Papelbon 88%
199 Ryan Webb           89%
200 Chris Young         89%

...As shown by the pitchers with the lowest $SB rates - Cueto and Buehrle, two pitchers known for having exceptional pickoff moves. And Chris Young is a man of extremes - stands 6'10", has the absolute lowest rate of hits on balls in play, but one of the highest rates of extra-base hits on the hits he does allow, and effectively turns the average baserunner into Jimmy Rollins.

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